Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.472697 23.813540 27.817286 33.057822 39.875339 48.653214 61.182171
2025-02-09 15.827994 19.518052 24.362409 31.431478 41.949191 57.913659 86.140106
2025-02-16 14.015774 18.015825 23.628955 32.539262 47.361116 73.490168 131.113773
2025-02-23 12.456806 16.476480 22.387799 32.369927 50.478138 86.675606 185.164433
2025-03-02 11.277977 15.259099 21.338750 32.146996 53.290976 100.810242 262.149589
2025-03-09 10.471829 14.464998 20.780030 32.571711 57.440150 120.759715 402.718881
2025-03-16 9.521350 13.324236 19.473263 31.327117 57.623605 130.823232 538.158371
2025-03-23 8.913475 12.655007 18.857112 31.257195 60.455020 151.281201 849.984122
2025-03-30 8.165224 11.684195 17.597482 29.662961 59.059206 156.823761 1101.191713
2025-04-06 7.474838 10.753269 16.313595 27.818136 56.522148 156.686807 1319.467760
2025-04-13 6.926011 10.018726 15.314802 26.433869 54.885953 159.527843 1680.759591
2025-04-20 7.089139 10.492758 16.562299 30.132513 69.011739 253.707659 17191.194239
2025-04-27 6.938610 10.431169 16.835406 31.807428 78.496289 354.615854 NaN
2025-05-04 6.460868 9.754708 15.841447 30.251404 76.308203 368.161032 NaN
2025-05-11 6.287488 9.609613 15.886163 31.298839 84.320546 504.467110 NaN
2025-05-18 6.017855 9.267491 15.492703 31.138829 87.631824 614.949018 NaN
2025-05-25 5.768279 8.944382 15.105998 30.928150 90.736663 752.603961 NaN
2025-06-01 5.589938 8.741223 14.950660 31.329492 97.009300 1026.479478 NaN
2025-06-08 5.302770 8.314773 14.279815 30.153006 95.076861 1100.760889 NaN
2025-06-15 5.121605 8.079649 14.004473 30.086876 98.927228 1436.298240 NaN
2025-06-22 4.847707 7.652538 13.277311 28.578055 94.399838 1407.607680 NaN
2025-06-29 4.572218 7.211464 12.495711 26.829550 88.088335 1268.269663 NaN
2025-07-06 4.343496 6.852126 11.876785 25.515724 83.896414 1218.017298 NaN